Programme name: Somalia Resilience Programme (SomReP)-World Vision Somalia

Target Location:17 districts of SomReP target Districts

Programme Goal

Increase the resilience of chronically vulnerable Somali people, households, communities and systems to climatic shocks and other related risks in targeted pastoral, agro-pastoral and peri-urban livelihood zones by 2023

Specific Objective

Sustainably improve food security and livelihoods of Somali people, households, communities through effective risk management, protection of productive assets, improved governance of resilience structures, and promotion of innovations and evidence based programming.

Intermediary Outcomes

1. Improved capacity of households to implement disaster risk reduction t and positive coping strategies to mitigate the immediate effect of exposure to shock;
2. Improved capacity of individuals, households and communities to adhere to positive development trajectories; despite exposures to shocks and utilize strategies designed to allow adaptation to rapid and slow on-set hazards;
3. Improved capacity of households to engage in strategies for sustainable livelihoods and economic growth to enhance food security and resilience;
4. governance structures at community, district and national levels are strengthened to enhance participation, transparency and accountability;
5. Programming, policy actions and decisions on resilience in Somalia informed on evidence based resilience research, learning and innovation

Key partners: ADRA, AAH, ACTED, CARE, COOPI, DRC, Oxfam and World Vision Somalia

Assessment Type: Annual Resilience Measurement

Purpose

To assess the outcomes and impact of the programme, in order to facilitate an understanding amongst the consortium programme staff and stakeholders of the extent to which the envisaged change has been realized.

Primary methods

· Document review

· Focus Group discussions

· Key Informant Interviews

Expected Start and end date: 21^st September – 2^nd November 2020

Anticipated reporting date: 2^nd November 2020**

1.0 Background

Somali Resilience Programme (SomReP) is a consortium of seven international NGOs namely Action Against Hunger (AAH), the Adventist Development and Relief Agency International (ADRA), Cooperative Assistance for Relief Everywhere (CARE), Cooperazione Internazionale (COOPI), Danish Refugee Council (DRC), Oxfam and World Vision Somalia whose aim is to tackle the challenge of mitigating the effects of recurrent shocks and stressors and alleviating the chronic vulnerability that is common among pastoralists, agro-pastoralists, and peri-urban households across Somalia. The program was designed to address communities’ unique needs by building resilient livelihoods, a strategy founded on the lessons learned and best practices of the consortium members.

With support from DFAT, EU and SDC, SomReP has for the past six years implemented a number of interventions through DFAT 5, EU Bay and Lower Shabelle, EU SWS and SDC projects with the aim of enhancing the resilience of vulnerable populations. To achieve this, SomReP programming supports resilience through:

1. Livelihoods & food security: HHs in targeted communities have improved access to productive livelihoods for enhanced food access and diversity;
2. Social Safety Nets: HHs in target communities have their livelihoods and assets protected during shocks and stressors through the establishment and strengthening of social safety nets, including the use of crisis modifier mechanisms such as Savings Group Schemes;
3. Natural resource management: Eco–system health improved through promotion of equitable and sustainable natural resource management;
4. Local governance capacity building: Communities, civil society and local institutions are better equipped with resilience strategies and response capacities to cope with recurrent shocks and stressors; and

The rationale behind the theory of change and impact pathways is that implementation of such interventions would eventually result in positive changes in well-being indicators which implicitly is indicative of enhanced adaptive, absorptive and transformative capacity. The program targeted 83,694 households and was implemented in the districts of: Belet Xaawo, Dollow, Luuq, El Barde, Odweyne, Baidoa, Badhan, Bossaso, Burao, Eyl, Hargeisa, Lughaya, Rabdhure, Afgooye, Dinsor, Waajid, Xudur, Laas Caanood, Salahley and Qansadhere.

At the beginning of all these projects, SomReP conducted baseline surveys to establish benchmark indicators. In addition, since 2016/17 SomReP has conducted annual resilience measurements to document impact of the SomReP programmes and assess the progress made annually on key outcomes and output indicators. This resilience measurement study will build on these studies to document the programme’s impact and assess the progress so far made on key outcomes and output indicators. SomReP would also want to take advantage of this assessment to establish whether the hypotheses and assumptions set to underpin SomReP Theory of Change and causal linkages between inputs and activities and outcomes and impacts were plausible and valid. The results of the assessment will be particularly important for SomReP not only to understand the impact of the project, test the theory of change underpinning the strategies and interventions delivered, but will also inform future strategic programming and project development.

2.0 Scope of Assessment and Objectives

The scope and focus of this assessment is to explore the outcomes and impact of the programme, in order to facilitate an understanding amongst the consortium programme staff and stakeholders of the extent to which the envisaged change has been realized. Specifically, the assessment seeks to:

· Assess the relevance, and effectiveness of the program strategies and interventions in relation to the context and the programme strategic framework, documenting the lessons learnt and best practices to inform future programming;

· Establish the extent to which the programme achieved its purpose and delivered on intended outputs, and whether the intended outcomes were met in relation to resilience programming;

· Assess the impact of the programme with particular focus on establishing changes that have occurred as measured by resilience and wellbeing indicators (provided for in SomReP master logical framework) for example food security and coping strategies indicators (i.e. HHS, FCS, RCSI, and HFIAS), ownership of household and community productive assets (climate sensitive and non-climate sensitive assets), income and expenditures among others; and

· Assess sustainability of the project interventions beyond donor funding.

· Assess the effectiveness and efficiency of programme interventions in strengthening the response capacity of various shocks and stresses including COVID-19 effects, Desert Locust, Conflict and Floods.

3.0 Study Design

For this resilience assessment, it is suggested that a non-experimental pre-test and post-test research design should be used to allow for comparison of resilience and wellbeing outcomes. This design is recommended because it will not just allow for documentation of the current situation regarding the resilience and wellbeing of households and communities but it will also allow for comparison with the values of resilience measurements that were obtained in 2016, 2017, and 2019 respectively. In addition, by virtue of the research design focusing on households and communities that have been exposed to project interventions, it will allow for assessment of associations between outcomes and the programme.

4.0 Research Methodology

To ensure that results are triangulated and collated, a mixed methods approach (i.e. combining qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis techniques) is recommended.

Qualitative data shall be collected through focus group and key informant interviews with programme’s target beneficiaries (pastoral, agro-pastoral, peri-urban or in some cases, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), other community members, government stakeholders, and strategic partners. Qualitative data will include data on governance issues, natural resource management issues, participation of different gender groups in decision making, community level infrastructure and services and community experience of covariate shocks. Additionally, the consultant will be required to review available secondary data including past annual resilience measurement, evaluation reports, and Livelihood Recovery assessment report to strengthen the data comparison across the districts.

As regard to quantitative data, the assessment will employ a comprehensive approach of data collection with a clear sampling methodology in all the target locations. This will be approved by the SomReP team before the actual field work. Quantitative data shall be collected through household survey using a harmonized resilience tool[1]. Key data to be collected using household questionnaire include household demographics, household participation (non-participation) in the program, household’s exposure to shocks (both covariate and idiosyncratic), household resilience and wellbeing indicators for example productive assets, expenditure/income, food security and copping strategies that is Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Hunger Scale (HHS), Reduced Consumption Strategy Index (RCSI), and Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), among others.

5.0 Study Population and Sampling Frame

The study population will comprise of programme beneficiaries from the SomReP operational districts and villages and key informants at the community, district and institutional level. The sampling unit will be a village and the villages will be stratified first by district and then by livelihood zone. The programme will provide to the consultant a list of beneficiaries[2] reached in each village. The programme reached to 17 districts; Afgoye, Badhan, Baidoa, Belet Xaawo, Bossaso, Burao, Ceel Afweyne, Dollow, Elbarde, Eyl, Hargeisa, Las Canood, Lughaye, Odweyne, Qansadhere, Xudur, Buur Hakaba.

6.0 Sample technique and Sample Size Calculation

For qualitative survey, a purposive sampling technique will be used to sample direct beneficiaries (pastoral, agro-pastoral, peri-urban or in some cases, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)), community members, government stakeholders, and strategic partners for key informants and focus group discussion. The sample size for qualitative group will be governed by the golden rule of data saturation[3]. The consultants are however are free to suggest alternative sampling criteria based on their experience.

For quantitative survey, a random sampling technique will be used to sample direct beneficiaries (and non-beneficiaries). To determine the sample size for quantitative survey, two important statistical parameters will be considered: the survey’s margin of error and confidence level. A margin of error of 8% and confidence interval of 95% are recommended[4] to arrive at the total number of respondents per district. The sample size will be determined using the formula below given by Krejcie and Smith[5], 1979.

7.0 Management of the Consultancy and Reporting

The consultants to undertake the assignment will report directly to the Head of Quality Assurance Manager for SomReP who will oversee the assignment. Regular consultation meetings will be arranged between the SomReP Technical Unit (TU) and the consultant as need arises.

7.1 Authority and Responsibility.

7.1.1. SomReP

· Ensure that the consultants adhere to research ethics and child protection policy

· Ensure quality assurance throughout study implementation

· Provide the consultants with necessary documents as demanded by the consultant

· Review report and provide feedback to the consultants to ensure quality delivery and compliance to the study protocol

· Arrange key informant interviews and focus-group discussions as requested by the consultants.

· Review and approve operational approaches to be used by the consultants including the inception report

· Review the draft report and provide feedback to the consultants.

· Approve the final reports contingent on the reports meeting the intended objectives and quality assurances

7.1.2 Consultant

· Develop inception report before actual roll out of the assessment detailing study methodology and appropriate/relevant data collection tools.

· Work closely with SomReP Head of Quality Assurance Manager during the design of the methodology/ tools; agree on the tools that will be used.

· Incorporate feedback into tools and reports which will be given from the SomReP team.

· Train enumerators, guide and supervise enumerators during data collection in the field.

· Conduct interviews

· Approximately one hour PowerPoint presentation of results and discussions to be delivered at either the Nairobi office or on Skype.

· Do de-briefing on preliminary findings. The result is expected to be shared with the stakeholders and the consultant needs to give due attention for the quality of the report.

· Submit draft and final reports as per schedule

· Submit a summary brief of the results (not more than 20 pages)

8.0. Standards of Ethics and Child Protection

The lead consultant will be responsible for ensuring that data collection and analysis approaches are designed to mitigate child protection risks and protect participants’ privacy and wellbeing by establishing and following credible ethical evaluation principles:

· The lead consultant shall ensure that all research assistants are oriented on research ethics and child protection policy prior to commencement of data collection.

· The lead consultant shall ensure that each member of the research team adheres to research ethics and child protection policies.

· The lead consultant shall ensure that every piece of information collected is treated with all the confidentiality that it deserves.

· The lead consultant shall ensure that survey participants to be involved in the study are well informed of the objectives of the study and their consent is sought prior to starting data collection. Participants will be informed of their rights to decline participation in the evaluation and that they will be at liberty to withdraw from the process if they wish to do so.

9. Logistics

The consultants will be responsible for their own logistics (i.e. transport and accommodation if necessary). The consultants will also be responsible for their own insurances, vaccinations, health, and security preparedness.

10. Proposal Content

Proposals from Consultants should include the following information (at a minimum)

· Technical Proposal with clear methodology, describing the data collection methods, sampling techniques, and data analysis plan to be used.

· CV of key consultant(s) attached to the technical proposal.

· Proposed budget (which shall include professional fees and operational budget). This should be submitted as a separate document, it should not be part of the Technical proposal, and neither should it be in the same document. (The proposed budget should be inclusive of all taxes. World Vision Somalia will withhold appropriate withholding tax at the rate applicable)

· Proposed timeline for the study.

11. The desired profile of the external consultant

· In-depth knowledge and experience of Somalia and its regions including government and community level service delivery structures.

· Masters/PhD degree in; Social sciences, Development studies, Monitoring and Evaluation and International studies, project planning and management and other related fields. Has a minimum of 5 years of technically sound experiences in Resilience measurements or in conducting quantitative assessments. Has at least 3 years of extensive experiences in food security and livelihood programing/resilience programing. Strong written, communication, and interpersonal skills in English, with substantial experience in training and managing teams.

· Has experiencing in conducting annual resilience measurements, or/and impact evaluations

· Have a track record of producing quality reports on specified timelines

· Prior experience working in Somalia and relationships with Somali-speaking field data collection supervisors will strongly be considered.

[1] The resilience tools that were used in the previous studies have been harmonized to ensure that results are comparable over time.

[2] A household is considered a beneficiary if they have participated in any of the interventions implemented by SomReP.

[3] Data saturation was reached, i.e. till no new data seemed to be emerging

[4] They are recommended because previous resilience measurements used the same statistical parameters and for our results to be comparable, we need to maintain the same values of margin error (8%) and confidence interval (95%).

[5] Krejcie, R. V. and D. W. Smith. (1970). Determining Sample Size for Research Activities. Educational and Psychological Measurement. Vol 30, Issue 3. Pp. 607-610. Sage Publications Inc.