TERMS OF REFERENCE

FOR THE ENDLINE STUDY OF SOUTH WEST STATE- DROUGHT RECOVERY PROGRAM IN

BAY & BAKOOL REGIONS

WORLD VISION SOMALIA-SomReP PROGRAM**

1. Baseline Summary

Project name

South West State- Drought Recovery Program

Target Location

Xudur, Qansadhere and Burr Hakaba

Project Goal

To improve access and contribute to resilience through increased adaptive capacities for communities and households in Somalia to protect their livelihood over continued shocks by 2019

Project Outcome

Specific objective/ Outcome: Sustainably improve food security and livelihoods and build resilience through effective risk management, protection of productive assets and governance of natural resources for agro-pastoral and peri-urban communities in Bay and Bakool Regions – South West States of Somalia.

intermediary Outcome 1 : Enhanced food security and capacity to meet social needs through sustainable cash-based assistance mechanisms and improved access to social capital enabling risk mitigation, promotion livelihood diversification and improved productivity

Intermediary Outcome 2 : Enhanced management and governance of natural resources, including soil and water systems to support sustainable agro-pastoral and peri-urban livelihoods

intermediary Outcome 3 : Enhanced livelihood diversification for women, men, and youth through the restoration and protection of productive assets, value chains and the uptake and adoption of agricultural technologies

intermediary Outcome 4: Enhanced risk management and disaster preparedness through community action and contingency planning to ensure protection of productive assets and sustainable livelihoods

Direct beneficiaries

Xudur (3000HH)

Qansadhere (1500)

Burr Hakaba (1000)

Key partners

· ADRA

· ACF

· ACTED

Project lifespan

Two Years

Baseline purpose

To set indicators baseline values against which projects will be Measured at the Midline and end of project evaluation.

Primary methods

· Document review

· Focus Group discussions

· Key Informant Interviews

Endline expected start and end date

2^nd February to 29 February 2020

Anticipated reporting date

1^st March 2020

2. Background/ Program Description

The Somalia Resilience Program (SomReP) is a multi-year effort by eight leading NGOs to tackle the challenge of recurrent droughts—and the chronic vulnerability that results— among pastoralists, agro pastoralists and peri-urban households across Somalia. The program is designed to address the communities’ unique needs toward building resilient livelihoods. The program builds on collective lessons learned by consortium members; World Vision, Oxfam, DRC, COOPI, CARE, ADRA, ACTED and ACF. The SomReP program has grown significantly since its inception in 2013. To date the consortium has over five active donors with on-going program interventions in the 15 districts targeting; pastoral, agro pastoral and per urban groups by the eight consortium members. Presently, SomReP has received funding from the European Union to implement South West Drought Recovery program in the districts of; Xudur, Qansadhere and Burr Hakaba, Bay & Bakool regions for two years. The project is implemented in three (3) districts of Xudur, Qansadhere and Burr Hakaba, and aim to improve access to resilience and increased adaptive capacities for communities and households in Somalia and to protect their livelihood over continued shocks. This particularly targeted; pastoral, agropastoral and per urban households in the communities who have been greatly affected by the recent drought. It is noted that for the program to achieve its intended goal and objectives, there is a need to hire the services of a consultant to conduct an endline study across the three districts and the impact of the the project

3. Purpose and objectives of the endline

WV/SomReP Program will undertake an endline study for the “South West State drought recovery program in, Bay & Bakool regions. The purpose and objectives of the endline is to establish the impact and effectiveness of the project as measured by project key outcomes and impact indicators.. At the beginning of the project in 2018, SomReP conducted baseline survey to establish benchmark values for key indicators. The endline evaluation will build on this baseline to assess the impact, effectiveness, and sustainability of the project. SomReP would also want to take advantage of this assessment to establish whether the hypotheses and assumptions set to underpin causal linkages between inputs and activities and outcomes and impacts were plausible and valid. The results of the assessment will be particularly important for SomReP not only to understand the impact of the project, test the theory of change underpinning the strategies and interventions delivered, but will also inform future strategic programming and project development.

Specifically, the assessment seeks to:

· Assess the relevance, effectiveness and efficiency of the program strategies and interventions in relation to the context and the programme strategic framework, documenting the lessons learnt and best practices to inform future programming;

· Establish the extent to which the programme achieved its purpose and delivered on intended outputs, and whether the intended outcomes were met in relation to resilience programming;

· Assess the impact of the programme with particular focus on establishing changes that have occurred as measured by key result indicators as stipulated in the logframe.

· Assess sustainability of the project interventions beyond donor funding.

4.0 Study Design

For this resilience assessment, it is suggested that a non-experimental pre-test and post-test research design should be used to allow for comparison of resilience and wellbeing outcomes – before and after the project interventions. This design is further recommended because it will not just allow for documentation of the current situation regarding the resilience and wellbeing of households and communities but it will also allow for comparison with the values of resilience measurements that were obtained in 2016 and 2017 respectively. In addition, by virtue of the research design focusing on households and communities that have been exposed to project interventions, it will allow for assessment of associations between outcomes and the programme.

5.0 Research Methodology

To ensure that results are triangulated and collated, a mixed methods approach (i.e. combining qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis techniques) is recommended.

Qualitative data shall be collected through focus group and key informant interviews with programme’s target beneficiaries (pastoral, agro-pastoral, peri-urban or in some cases, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs), other community members, government stakeholders, and strategic partners. In collecting this, data gender consideration shall be taken in account. Qualitative data will include data on governance issues, participation of different gender groups in decision making, community level infrastructure and services and community experience of covariate shocks. It is also important to establish the extent to which the project has strengthened the governance structures at community and national levels to support resilience programmes. Additionally, the consultant will be required to review available secondary data including past annual resilience measurement, evaluation reports, and Livelihood Recovery assessment report to strengthen the data comparison across the districts.

As regard to quantitative data, the assessment will employ a comprehensive approach of data collection with a clear sampling methodology in all the target locations. This will be approved by the SomReP team before the actual field work. Quantitative data shall be collected through household survey using a harmonized resilience tool[1]. Key data to be collected using household questionnaire include household demographics, household participation (non-participation) in the program, household’s exposure to shocks (both covariate and idiosyncratic), household resilience and wellbeing indicators for example productive assets, expenditure/income, food security and copping strategies that is Food Consumption Score (FCS), Household Hunger Scale (HHS), and Reduced Consumption Strategy and Index (RCSI).

5.1 Study Population and Sampling Frame

The study population will comprise of programme beneficiaries from the operational districts and villages and key informants at the community, district and institutional level. The sampling unit will be a household and the households will be stratified first by district and then by livelihood zone. The programme will provide to the consultant a list of beneficiaries[2] reached in each village. The programme reached to 3 districts namely, Xudur, Qansadhere and Burr Hakaba

5.2 Sample technique and Sample Size Calculation

For qualitative survey, a purposive sampling technique will be used to sample direct beneficiaries (pastoral, agro-pastoral, peri-urban or in some cases, Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs)), community members, government stakeholders, and strategic partners for key informants and focus group discussion. The sample size for qualitative group will governed by the golden rule of data saturation[3].

For quantitative survey, a random sampling technique will be used to sample direct beneficiaries (and non-beneficiaries). To determine the sample size for quantitative survey, two important statistical parameters will be considered: the survey’s margin of error and confidence level. A margin of error of 8% and confidence interval of 95% are recommended[4] to arrive at the total number of respondents per district. The sample size will be determined using the formula below given by Krejcie and Smith[5], 1979.

1. Management of the Consultancy and Reporting

The consultants to undertake the assignment will report directly to the Q&A manager for SomReP to make sure compliance with the intended goals. Regular consultation meetings will be arranged between the SomReP TU and the consultant as need arises.

7. Authority and Responsibility.

7.1. World Vision/SomReP

· Provide the selected consultant with necessary documents to enable a clear reporting and understanding of the SomReP program.

· Create linkages with field staff, Implementing Partners and other stakeholders to ensure effective accomplishment of consultant research study.

· Review report and provide feedback to the consultant to ensure consistency with SomReP implementation objective.

· Arrange key informant interviews as per the evaluation methodology.

· Liaise with local implementing partners on behalf of the consultant to plan data collection

· Provide necessary orientation and training to the consultant.

· Review and approve field approaches to be used by the consultant.

· Review the draft report and provide feedback to the consultant.

7.2. Consultant

· Provide summary fact sheet highlighting key findings.

· Develop Case studies of interventions or approaches; with the most impact; Innovative approaches

· Develop assessment plan, methodology and appropriate/relevant qualitative and quantitative data collection tools

· Develop the sample size population for the target population using World Vision approved methodology- Learning through Evaluation with Accountability and Planning (LEAP 3) with the aim of achieving 95% confidence level and 5% margin of error.

· Work closely with M&E manager, the partners and project staff during the design of the methodology/tools; agree on the tools that will be used.

· Recruit and train enumerators, guide and supervise enumerators during data collection in the field.

· Incorporate feedback into tools and reports which will be given from the team.

· Make visits to data collection site and do Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informant Interviews (KIIs).

· Approximately one hour PowerPoint presentation of results and discussions to be delivered, either Nairobi office or on Skype.

· The consultant is expected to submit an inception report with a detailed sampling framework, work Plan and data collection tools and the budget, which needs to be approved prior to field data collection.

· Debriefing on preliminary findings to the field team soon after data collection and completion of the report. The result is expected to be shared with the stakeholders and the consultant needs to give due attention for the quality of the report.

· The consultant is required to write and hand over the final report to the SomRep/WVI. The final report will include; narrative report, relevant data collection tools and raw data.

8. Limitation

· Somali-English translation, important information may be lost in the process. However, to reduce the risk of losing key information, an integration of Somali speaking enumerators should be considered during the data collection.

· Time and security are considered to be one of the major limitations to assessment processes as the fragile and versatile context in Somalia makes it often challenging to keep up strictly with a set agenda.

· The capacity of the external data collectors also represents a limitation for the survey.

9. Logistics

The consultants will be responsible for their own logistics (Flights, accommodation and Meals) WV will only support coordination of their logistics to and in field without any financial commitment.

10. Proposal Content

Proposals from Consultants should include the following information (at a minimum)

· Technical Proposal with clear methodology, including types of data collection tools and analysis

· CV of key consultant(s) attached to the technical proposal

· Proposed budget

· Proposed timeline

11. The desired profile of the baseline external consultant

· In-depth knowledge of Somalia and its regions including government and community level service delivery structures

· Masters/PhD degree in; Social sciences, Development studies, Monitoring and Evaluation or International studies, project planning and management and other related fields.

· Has technically sound experiences of six to ten years in conducting, Evaluations, Baseline, Assessment and Studies in Somalia or in other countries, but similar contexts Has extensive experiences in food security and livelihood programing/resilience programing

· Strong written, communication, and interpersonal skills in English, with substantial experience in training and managing teams

· He/ She should have the ability to provide good reports, Analysis and presentation to SomReP.

· The Consultant may apply as individual or as a team of competent consultants clearly stating the responsibilities of each member of the team.

· Prior experience working in Somalia and relationships with Somali-speaking field data collection supervisors will strongly be considered.