Background:

Work in Progress! Alliance (WiP!) project which is aimed to enable young people from different backgrounds to generate sustainable living wages and create optimism about the future in Egypt, Nigeria, and Somaliland. This is done by working on the whole employment ecosystem including skills development, fostering enabling including employment policies whilst anchoring the development of the private sector. We are convinced that socially engaged youth, young women and men, can be a driving force in Africa to improve economic growth and social progress and thereby reduce poverty and inequality. WiP! contributes to achieving Sustainable Development Goals 1, 4, 8 and 91 in three complementary ways:

• first, we build young people’s skills for today and the future to find paid jobs or set up their own enterprises;

• second, we support startups and small-impact businesses to grow so that they can employ more young people and improve social impact; and

• third, we try to improve policies and attitudes towards youth jobs and small businesses.

Rationale:

According to the World Bank, nearly 8 in 10 Somalis are estimated to live in situations of very severe poverty. Poverty in Somalia is widespread with 77 percent of the population living below the poverty line of US$ 1.90 at 2011 purchasing power parity (PPP). In addition, Somaliland has one of the youngest population in the world as 75% of the population is under the age of 30. Unemployment rate under youth, stands as high as 65% according to the Ministry of Employment, Labor and Social Affairs and Family (MESAF). On the other hand, there are limited enabling policies, researches and lack of information as to where the world of work is heading to, the future nexus between the skill-set, jobs and the future architect of the private sector. This often make it difficult for youth to chart their own efforts to become productive and active citizens. On the other hand, universities/higher education institutions are churning out hundreds if not thousands of youth with degrees that may not have a perfect match with market needs. Yet, countless opportunities lie in the horizon including the vast penetration of the tech sector in the market, entrepreneurship in all aspects and other emerging technical skills in the market.

Overall Objectives:

As we know, today’s skills may not be a perfect match with tomorrows jobs or become outdated. Similarly, the architect of employers including private sector can take a different direction as predicted by the advancement of technology and potential automation of the different occupations in the workplace. It is within this background that Oxfam seeks to shine a spotlight on the future of work by analyzing future opportunities for youth and seize opportunities presented by these shifts in future. More specifically, the study will analyze the future supply and demand and identify future trends in the labor market whilst shining a deeper focus on how the future of education system of Somaliland will look like and how that is aligned with future jobs and entrepreneurship opportunities in the market. The findings of the study will inform Oxfam’s influencing efforts to introduce policy recommendations about how to bridge the gap between education and economic opportunities for youth as declared by the study. In addition, Oxfam will work closely with different stakeholders in order to enable youth have access to relevant and market-oriented skills well-tailored to the future of work and entrepreneurship whilst influencing the ecosystem to create an enabling environment.

Specific Objectives of the assessment are:

· Identify skills needed by the future of work/trends and shifts potentially occurring in the future profession and whether the education sector is keeping pace with/preparing for the potential future shifts in the world of work.

· Identify(also provide substantive examples and scenarios) on whether there will be occupational shifts in the world of work .This is based on scenarios of work partly on the impact of automation and labor demands in the next 10 years(2020-2030).

· Draw analytical trendline on the future working conditions and undertake diagnostic analysis on future decent work conditions(working hours ,fair wages, balance between work and personal live ,among other indicators).

· Entrepreneurial shift: Study the different shifts occurring in the entrepreneurship sector/private sector posed by the rise of technology and automation. Analyze sectors that could be on the rise and sectors on the decline and how young entrepreneurs and job seekers are positioning themselves in those shifts.

· Assess the extent to which automation is affecting the distribution of income between men and women by clearly looking at whether these future dynamics are susceptible to women’s employment and entrepreneurship/economic participation.

· Identify the likelihood to which young graduates will be capitalizing the 21^st century skills which help young graduates to remain competitive in the changing job market and the desire by the employers to have an employee with 21^st century skills than an individual with none of such. In summary, below key skills are paramount to be assessed (critical thinking, Creativity ,Collaboration ,communication, information literacy, media literacy ,technology literacy ,flexibility ,leadership, initiative, productivity and social skills.

Scope of Work:

The assessment should be carried out in consultation with youth development and employment organizations (both national and International), incubation ,acceleration organization and hubs, youth groups ,private sector, including young entrepreneurs from a wide array of sectors, higher education institutions, employers, TVET centers as well as relevant government agencies. The assessment shall put users at the center of the design by engaging in both young job seekers and young employees at all stages of the assessment.

More specifically ,the assessment will gather answers for the following key questions categorized into sub sectors.

Future fit between skills future jobs in the market:

· What will be the types of growing occupations/jobs as well as potentially declining occupations in the next 10 years(2020-2030) in the market and the future of work, categorized into their respective sectors and what will be the technical skills sets needed (technical and non-technical) by the employees in order to fill those opportunities.

· How will the entrepreneurship landscape would look like in the next 10 years. What will be the emerging sectors (that young entrepreneurs can tap into) plus declining sectors and how the technology/automation influence has taken a role in making those shifts/structural changes .Provide examples and scenarios to make it more elaborative.

· In combination with sectoral skills, what are the potential complementary skills (soft skills for instance) that are ranked as high priority by the employers of the respective sectors and deemed necessary to be possessed by potential candidates and the extent to which these skills are possessed by young graduate job seekers. Will there be new emerging soft skills coming up in the next 10 years?

· After assessing the future market trends in the market, the consultant will Shine a spotlight on how the education sector will be prepared enough to keep up with the future of work requirements by also scanning current nexus between education/skills and occupation.

· How might duty bearers prepared to adjust current strategies and policies to make it more tailored to the future of work demands?

· Assess specific skills related to the innovation and technology sector in Somaliland and how might youth especially young women be either upskilling or re-skilling to venture into those sectors.

· Identify future trends in the agriculture ,livestock, energy, oil refinery and fishery sector and diagnose and how those sectors will be involved in designing curricula for higher education .Assess future employment conditions in the job market that may negatively affect young people’s motive to the job market including decent work conditions and possibility for everybody to work (inclusive all minorities) whilst holistically weighing the extent to which the market will be providing conducive and aspiring atmosphere for future young job seekers.

· Scheme out the distribution between young men and women about the future occupations available in the market and the gender concentration rate per each sector. The study shall specifically draw the gender disparity between the two groups and recommend future actions for fostering equitable employment opportunities in Somaliland. Focus should also take into account other groups including minorities, disabled, ethnic minorities and how recruiters also feel about recruiting candidates from these groups and should give substantive information about how inequality may be compounded in the future of work trends.

Future Entrepreneurship Landscape:

· What will be the new emerging sectors in the private sector and declining sectors? How are young, self-employed entrepreneurs being aware of those changes and positioning themselves in those changes. Will young women and other marginalized youth groups (disabled, minority) be susceptible to those changes compared to young men and non-marginalized groups?

· What will be the fundamental skills needed in the future entrepreneurship to realize growth? How might those skills be mainstreamed and adapted in current entrepreneurship curricula?

· How will technology penetration affect the entrepreneurship ecosystem? provide scenarios and examples to make it more elaborate.

· Will access to finance mechanisms set by different financial institutions (National and International) will be liable to change? Will there be new emerging actors in the market? and how might those changes be factored in entrepreneurship tools/curriculum

Target Groups:

As described in the scope of work, below are the target groups of the assessment:

· Both employed and un-employed youngsters (from a wide array of education institutions including TVET, Tech schools, universities, incubations, amongst others). Focus shall also be on interviewing young people from marginalized groups(disabled,

· Selected focal points from education institutions of both formal and informal education.

· Relevant government agencies including ministry of employment, technology, education as well as youth and sports.

· Employers (private sector, state and non-state sectors(employers from diverse sectors).This helps understand private sector landscape in future.

· Young entrepreneurs (include entrepreneurs from marginalized groups as well)

· Youth empowerment organizations including both national and international actors including ILO .Also inclusivity organizations like DAN(disability action network) shall be interviewed).

Methodology:

The consultant/consulting firm shall employ the best participatory and user friendly method in carrying out this assessment. However, below guiding principles are key for this assessment.

· Desk review of existing information including previous studies about employment and skills nexus, existing policy documents and trends in the economic model affecting Somalia in general and Somaliland specifically, and a deeper look at current and future national priorities pertaining to employment and entrepreneurship development

· Interviews with both employed and un-employed graduate youth(clustered into gender, disabled and marginalized) (focus group discussions), representatives from private companies(youth led enterprises should be part of), education institutions, private companies of wide array of sectors, young entrepreneurs, youth empowerment civil society organizations as well as relevant government agencies. These shall also remain as part of the Key informant interview that the consultant is supposed to undertake from these stakeholders.

· Any other research method as deemed necessary.

Duration of the assessment:

The length of the assessment will be 3 months starting from 1^st of November 2019 and ending on 31^st January 2019.The consultant and/or firm is expected to come up with a detailed breakdown of the assessment plan prior to the commencement of the work.

Deliverables:

· Desk review of the existing work, economic model trends in the country, technology and business related surveys in Somaliland and any other related studies targeting the job market, innovation and private sector development ,programme reports by different actors, youth’s economic development and the nexus between education and the future of work(if any) .

· Detailed plan of the entire study including specific dates of each task.

· Inception workshop (half day): The inception workshop will fine turn proposed method and kick start the research. Followed by an Inception report clearly describing the detailed assessment plan, methodology, sampling methods, proposed data collection and analysis methods.

· Validation workshop that brings together different stakeholders in both locations. A report that incorporates the feedback from participating stakeholders would be delivered thereafter.

· The Final report (including tools and data sets used) of the assessment to be submitted one week after Oxfam’s feedback on the initial draft report. The report should clearly provide substantive information of the research objectives and questions and shall be concise (not exceed more than 50 pages).

· A list of Killer facts

· Information of use for infographics (infographics will not be done by the consultant).

Qualifications and level of experience:

· Qualified consultants/firms are encouraged to apply this consultancy work with the lead consultancy possessing the following:

· Graduate and/or postgraduate degree in social science specially development studies, economics, social work or other related field

· Profound understanding in global tech trends specially in East Africa.

· Over 6 years of previous experience in similar work specially in Somaliland/Somalia

· Demonstrable communication and report writing skills

· Substantive experience in analyzing complex data by using latest data analysis tools by employing both qualitative and quantitative research methods.

Conditions:

The Consultant Team is expected to sign and comply to Oxfam’s Code of Conduct (non-Oxfam staff). It is expected throughout to adhere to Oxfam’s Responsible Program Data Policy. This includes adhering to all requirements that are relevant in the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) Act of the European Union, when gathering, processing, using and sharing data. It is expected of Tenderers to make explicit in their proposals how they will ensure compliance in their activities with GDPR, including but not limited to ensuring informed consent, data safeguarding and data sharing. It is expected of tenderers to sign the related Data Processing and Security Agreement, as part of the contracting.